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1

Group Dynamics in Top Management Teams: Groupthink, Vigilance, and Alternative Models of Organizational Failure and Success

Randall S Peterson, Pamela D Owens, Philip E Tetlock, Elliott T Fan, Paul Martorana

Journal:

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

Year:

1998

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 523 KB

english, 1998

2

Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market

PAUL C. TETLOCK

Journal:

The Journal of Finance

Year:

2007

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 181 KB

english, 2007

3

Accelerating Learning in Active Management: The Alpha-Brier Process

Cerniglia, Joseph A., Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

The Journal of Portfolio Management

Year:

2019

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 756 KB

english, 2019

4

The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

Mellers, Barbara, Stone, Eric, Atanasov, Pavel, Rohrbaugh, Nick, Metz, S. Emlen, Ungar, Lyle, Bishop, Michael M., Horowitz, Michael, Merkle, Ed, Tetlock, Philip

Journal:

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied

Year:

2015

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 403 KB

english, 2015

5

The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

Friedman, Jeffrey A, Baker, Joshua D, Mellers, Barbara A, Tetlock, Philip E, Zeckhauser, Richard

Journal:

International Studies Quarterly

Year:

2018

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 584 KB

english, 2018

6

Thinking the unthinkable: sacred values and taboo cognitions

Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

Trends in Cognitive Sciences

Year:

2003

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 105 KB

english, 2003

7

Taboo Scenarios

Paul J.H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

California Management Review

Year:

2012

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 305 KB

english, 2012

8

Rethinking the training of intelligence analysts

Chang, Welton, Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Intelligence & National Security

Year:

2016

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.16 MB

english, 2016

9

Political Diversity Will Improve Social Psychological Science

Duarte, José L., Crawford, Jarret T., Stern, Charlotta, Haidt, Jonathan, Jussim, Lee, Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Behavioral and Brain Sciences

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 505 KB

english, 2014

10

Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions

Mellers, B., Stone, E., Murray, T., Minster, A., Rohrbaugh, N., Bishop, M., Chen, E., Baker, J., Hou, Y., Horowitz, M., Ungar, L., Tetlock, P.

Journal:

Perspectives on Psychological Science

Year:

2015

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 868 KB

english, 2015

11

The psychology of the unthinkable: Taboo trade-offs, forbidden base rates, and heretical counterfactuals.

Tetlock, Philip E., Kristel, Orie V., Elson, S. Beth, Green, Melanie C., Lerner, Jennifer S.

Journal:

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Year:

2000

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.87 MB

english, 2000

12

Taboo Trade-offs: Reactions to Transactions That Transgress the Spheres of Justice

Alan Page Fiske, Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

Political Psychology

Year:

1997

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 210 KB

english, 1997

13

Churchill's Cognitive and Rhetorical Style: The Debates over Nazi Intentions and Self-Government for India

Philip E. Tetlock and Anthony Tyler

Journal:

Political Psychology

Year:

1996

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 681 KB

english, 1996

14

Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization

Mellers, Barbara, Tetlock, Philip, Arkes, Hal R.

Journal:

Year:

2018

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 352 KB

english, 2018

15

From what might have been to what must have been: Counterfactual thinking creates meaning.

Kray, Laura J., George, Linda G., Liljenquist, Katie A., Galinsky, Adam D., Tetlock, Philip E., Roese, Neal J.

Journal:

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Year:

2010

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 156 KB

english, 2010

16

It may be harder than we thought, but political diversity will (still) improve social psychological science

Crawford, Jarret T., Duarte, José L., Haidt, Jonathan, Jussim, Lee, Stern, Charlotta, Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Behavioral and Brain Sciences

Year:

2015

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 964 KB

english, 2015

17

Assessing political group dynamics: A test of the groupthink model.

Tetlock, Philip E., Peterson, Randall S., McGuire, Charles, Chang, Shi-jie, Feld, Peter

Journal:

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Year:

1992

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 3.20 MB

english, 1992

18

Rage and reason: the psychology of the intuitive prosecutor

Julie H. Goldberg, Jennifer S. Lerner, Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

European Journal of Social Psychology

Year:

1999

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 161 KB

english, 1999

19

Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model

Satopää, Ville A., Baron, Jonathan, Foster, Dean P., Mellers, Barbara A., Tetlock, Philip E., Ungar, Lyle H.

Journal:

International Journal of Forecasting

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 556 KB

english, 2014

20

The New Racism

Paul M. Sniderman, Thomas Piazza, Philip E. Tetlock and Ann Kendrick

Journal:

American Journal of Political Science

Year:

1991

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.71 MB

english, 1991

21

Political Psychology or Politicized Psychology: Is the Road to Scientific Hell Paved with Good Moral Intentions?

Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

Political Psychology

Year:

1994

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 2.00 MB

english, 1994

22

How Americans Think About Trade: Reconciling Conflicts Among Money, Power, and Principles

Richard K. Herrmann, Philip E. Tetlock, Matthew N. Diascro

Journal:

International Studies Quarterly

Year:

2001

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 249 KB

english, 2001

23

Predicting ethnic and racial discrimination: A meta-analysis of IAT criterion studies.

Oswald, Frederick L., Mitchell, Gregory, Blanton, Hart, Jaccard, James, Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Year:

2013

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 228 KB

english, 2013

24

Cognitive style and political belief systems in the British House of Commons.

Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Year:

1984

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.07 MB

english, 1984

25

A Cognitive Analysis of Japan's 1941 Decision for War

Levi, A., Tetlock, P. E.

Journal:

Journal of Conflict Resolution

Year:

1980

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 763 KB

english, 1980

26

Accountability and complexity of thought.

Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Year:

1983

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1012 KB

english, 1983

27

More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals

PAUL C. TETLOCK, MAYTAL SAAR-TSECHANSKY, SOFUS MACSKASSY

Journal:

The Journal of Finance

Year:

2008

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.35 MB

english, 2008

28

Forecasting Tournaments: Tools for Increasing Transparency and Improving the Quality of Debate

Tetlock, P. E., Mellers, B. A., Rohrbaugh, N., Chen, E.

Journal:

Current Directions in Psychological Science

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 322 KB

english, 2014

29

Providing public assistance: Cognitive and motivational processes underlying liberal and conservative policy preferences.

Skitka, Linda J., Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Year:

1993

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 2.28 MB

english, 1993

30

Accounting for the effects of accountability.

Lerner, Jennifer S., Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Psychological Bulletin

Year:

1999

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 2.70 MB

english, 1999

31

Bringing probability judgments into policy debates via forecasting tournaments

Tetlock, Philip E., Mellers, Barbara A., Scoblic, J. Peter

Journal:

Year:

2017

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 314 KB

english, 2017

32

Cognitive style and political ideology.

Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Year:

1983

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 912 KB

english, 1983

33

The boundaries of the thinkable

Tetlock, Philip E., Oppenheimer, Michael

Journal:

Year:

2008

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 117 KB

english, 2008

34

How Politicized Is Political Psychology and Is There Anything We Should Do about It?

Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

Political Psychology

Year:

1994

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.11 MB

english, 1994

35

Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls

Atanasov, Pavel, Rescober, Phillip, Stone, Eric, Swift, Samuel A., Servan-Schreiber, Emile, Tetlock, Philip, Ungar, Lyle, Mellers, Barbara

Journal:

Management Science

Year:

2016

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 368 KB

english, 2016

36

Taboo Trade-Offs, Relational Framing, and the Acceptability of Exchanges

A. Peter McGraw, Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

Journal of Consumer Psychology

Year:

2005

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 4.76 MB

english, 2005

37

Social functionalist frameworks for judgment and choice: Intuitive politicians, theologians, and prosecutors.

Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Psychological Review

Year:

2002

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 136 KB

english, 2002

38

Cognitive Biases and Organizational Correctives: Do Both Disease and Cure Depend on the Politics of the Beholder?

Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

Administrative Science Quarterly

Year:

2000

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 4.21 MB

english, 2000

39

Strong claims and weak evidence: Reassessing the predictive validity of the IAT.

Blanton, Hart, Jaccard, James, Klick, Jonathan, Mellers, Barbara, Mitchell, Gregory, Tetlock, Philip E.

Journal:

Journal of Applied Psychology

Year:

2009

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 551 KB

english, 2009

40

Sacred versus Pseudo-Sacred Values: How People Cope with Taboo Trade-Offs

Tetlock, Philip E., Mellers, Barbara A., Scoblic, J. Peter

Journal:

American Economic Review

Year:

2017

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 449 KB

english, 2017

41

Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters

Atanasov, Pavel, Witkowski, Jens, Ungar, Lyle, Mellers, Barbara, Tetlock, Philip

Journal:

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

Year:

2020

File:

PDF, 915 KB

2020

42

Policy-Makers' Images of International Conflict

Dr. Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

Journal of Social Issues

Year:

1983

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.10 MB

english, 1983

43

Biased Beliefs, Asset Prices, and Investment: A Structural Approach

ALTI, AYDOĞAN, TETLOCK, PAUL C.

Journal:

The Journal of Finance

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 893 KB

english, 2014

44

Accountability: A Social Check on the Fundamental Attribution Error

Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

Social Psychology Quarterly

Year:

1985

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.22 MB

english, 1985

45

[Advances in Experimental Social Psychology] Advances in Experimental Social Psychology Volume 25 Volume 25 || The Impact of Accountability on Judgment and Choice: Toward A Social Contingency Model

Tetlock, Philip E.

Year:

1992

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 5.63 MB

english, 1992

46

Cognitive and Rhetorical Styles of Traditionalist and Reformist Soviet Politicians: A Content Analysis Study

Tetlock, Philip E., Boettger, Richard

Journal:

Political Psychology

Year:

1989

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.99 MB

english, 1989

47

Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market

Paul C. Tetlock

Journal:

The Journal of Finance

Year:

2007

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 3.99 MB

english, 2007

48

Accountability amplifies the status quo effect when change creates victims

Philip E. Tetlock, Richard Boettger

Journal:

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

Year:

1994

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.62 MB

english, 1994

49

Attribution bias: On the inconclusiveness of the cognition-motivation debate

Philip E. Tetlock, Ariel Levi

Journal:

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

Year:

1982

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.54 MB

english, 1982

50

Expectations and emotions of Olympic athletes

A. Peter McGraw, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock

Journal:

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

Year:

2005

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 364 KB

english, 2005

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